Experimental Results for the Energy Usage Modelling and Forecasting for Control (EUMF-K) Service

Experimental Scenario

Experiments where performed on two homes, one from the Kalundborg test-bed and one from the Central District test-bed. Both homes are virtually equipped with a PEV, using charging data from the Test-An-EV project. For both homes, 4 experiments have been run, by varying the length (in days) of the past consumption profile window. That is, EUMF-K will maintain information of the hour-by-hour energy consumption and production in the last 1, 5, 10 and 20 days. Starting from such input, EUMF-K will forecast the energy consumption, production and demand for the next 24 hours.

Results for Kalundborg home
Results for Central District home

Results for Kalundborg home

Hour-by-hour EUMF-K input and output, plus relative error distributions

History Length (days)1-th hour2-th hour3-th hour4-th hour5-th hour6-th hour7-th hour8-th hour9-th hour10-th hour11-th hour12-th hour13-th hour14-th hour15-th hour16-th hour17-th hour18-th hour19-th hour20-th hour21-th hour22-th hour23-th hour
OutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distribution
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Relative forecasting error for each hour

Hour-by-hour minimum, average and maximum relative error for demand forecasting
Hour-by-hour average relative error for demand forecasting
History Length (days)1-th hour2-th hour3-th hour4-th hour5-th hour6-th hour7-th hour8-th hour9-th hour10-th hour11-th hour12-th hour13-th hour14-th hour15-th hour16-th hour17-th hour18-th hour19-th hour20-th hour21-th hour22-th hour23-th hour
MinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMax
10.0000001.477415339.0000000.0000001.477561339.0000000.0000001.477700339.0000000.0000001.477854339.0000000.0000001.477947339.0000000.0000001.477981339.0000000.0000001.478045339.0000000.0000001.477937339.0000000.0000001.478086339.0000000.0000001.477915339.0000000.0000001.476529339.0000000.0000001.476473339.0000000.0000001.476098339.0000000.0000001.476237339.0000000.0000001.476335339.0000000.0000001.476458339.0000000.0000001.476572339.0000000.0000001.476706339.0000000.0000001.476855339.0000000.0000001.476998339.0000000.0000001.477152339.0000000.0000001.477305339.0000000.0000001.477447339.000000
50.0000001.290017319.4375000.0000001.290129319.4375000.0000001.290263319.4375000.0000001.290389319.4375000.0000001.290277319.4375000.0000001.290294319.4375000.0000001.290356319.4375000.0000001.290493319.4375000.0000001.290606319.4375000.0000001.290741319.4375000.0000001.290793319.4375000.0000001.290781319.4375000.0000001.290435319.4375000.0000001.290109319.4375000.0000001.290064319.4375000.0000001.290149319.4375000.0000001.290254319.4375000.0000001.290388319.4375000.0000001.290499319.4375000.0000001.290628319.4375000.0000001.290758319.4375000.0000001.290896319.4375000.0000001.291035319.437500
100.0000091.280580318.1501600.0000091.280692318.1501600.0000091.280796318.1501600.0000091.280916318.1501600.0000091.277735318.1501600.0000091.277810318.1501600.0000091.277864318.1501600.0000091.277941318.1501600.0000091.278025318.1501600.0000091.277853318.1501600.0000091.277945318.1501600.0000091.278058318.1501600.0000091.278113318.1501600.0000091.276002318.1501600.0000091.275635318.1501600.0000091.275760318.1501600.0000091.275885318.1501600.0000091.276009318.1501600.0000091.276130318.1501600.0000091.276249318.1501600.0000091.276349318.1501600.0000091.276485318.1501600.0000091.276619318.150160
200.0000161.279012318.0896600.0000161.279086318.0896600.0000161.279213318.0896600.0000161.279248318.0896600.0000161.278023318.0896600.0000161.275695318.0896600.0000161.275575318.0896600.0000161.275237318.0896600.0000161.275347318.0896600.0000161.274972318.0896600.0000161.275038318.0896600.0000161.275140318.0896600.0000161.275192318.0896600.0000161.275267318.0896600.0000161.275380318.0896600.0000161.275483318.0896600.0000161.275584318.0896600.0000161.275716318.0896600.0000161.275840318.0896600.0000161.275953318.0896600.0000161.276090318.0896600.0000161.276203318.0896600.0000161.276343318.089660
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Results for Central District home

Hour-by-hour EUMF-K input and output, plus relative error distributions

History Length (days)1-th hour2-th hour3-th hour4-th hour5-th hour6-th hour7-th hour8-th hour9-th hour10-th hour11-th hour12-th hour13-th hour14-th hour15-th hour16-th hour17-th hour18-th hour19-th hour20-th hour21-th hour22-th hour23-th hour
OutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distributionOutputRelative error distribution
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Relative forecasting error for each hour

Hour-by-hour minimum, average and maximum relative error for demand forecasting
Hour-by-hour average relative error for demand forecasting
History Length (days)1-th hour2-th hour3-th hour4-th hour5-th hour6-th hour7-th hour8-th hour9-th hour10-th hour11-th hour12-th hour13-th hour14-th hour15-th hour16-th hour17-th hour18-th hour19-th hour20-th hour21-th hour22-th hour23-th hour
MinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMaxMinAvgMax
10.0004340.49794777.1613430.0004340.49817477.1613430.0004340.49837877.1613430.0004340.49852677.1613430.0004340.49846477.1613430.0004340.49833777.1613430.0004340.49820577.1613430.0004340.49816477.1613430.0004340.49792477.1613430.0004340.49758877.1613430.0004340.49713477.1613430.0004340.49636577.1613430.0004340.49582377.1613430.0004340.49596777.1613430.0004340.49590877.1613430.0004340.49573477.1613430.0004340.49558777.1613430.0004340.49544877.1613430.0004340.49545077.1613430.0004340.49515777.1613430.0004340.49438677.1613430.0004340.49441077.1613430.0004340.49452577.161343
50.0000380.45813771.9696810.0000380.45827371.9696810.0000380.45835671.9696810.0000380.45847571.9696810.0000380.45858571.9696810.0000380.45853671.9696810.0000380.45872571.9696810.0000380.45874571.9696810.0000380.45867371.9696810.0000380.45859571.9696810.0000380.45871771.9696810.0000380.45834271.9696810.0000380.45829571.9696810.0000380.45852671.9696810.0000380.45845571.9696810.0000380.45860871.9696810.0000380.45879271.9696810.0000380.45902571.9696810.0000380.45921871.9696810.0000380.45935971.9696810.0000380.45952071.9696810.0000380.45963971.9696810.0000380.45976171.969681
100.0004920.46832373.1302110.0004920.46844873.1302110.0004920.46867073.1302110.0004920.46884573.1302110.0004920.46889073.1302110.0004920.46872373.1302110.0004920.46811873.1302110.0004920.46679773.1302110.0004920.46524073.1302110.0004920.46488073.1302110.0004920.46467773.1302110.0004920.46486573.1302110.0004920.46506673.1302110.0004920.46528873.1302110.0004920.46552973.1302110.0004920.46557273.1302110.0004920.46571873.1302110.0004920.46587473.1302110.0004920.46607573.1302110.0004920.46621673.1302110.0004920.46631773.1302110.0004920.46651173.1302110.0004920.46671073.130211
200.0001500.48603873.1317000.0001500.48616373.1317000.0001500.48615373.1317000.0001500.48588873.1317000.0001500.48613773.1317000.0001500.48634273.1317000.0001500.48627773.1317000.0001500.48639373.1317000.0001500.48640073.1317000.0001500.48661873.1317000.0001500.48649373.1317000.0001500.48613873.1317000.0001500.48544773.1317000.0001500.48496473.1317000.0001500.48507773.1317000.0001500.48531373.1317000.0001500.48544573.1317000.0001500.48560273.1317000.0001500.48540573.1317000.0001500.48517573.1317000.0001500.48498173.1317000.0001500.48475873.1317000.0001500.48476173.131700
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